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Adani Green Energy
Q4FY26 Power April 24, 2026
Management Sentiment
8.0/10
Tailwinds
8.0/10
Headwinds
5.0/10
Business Performance Highlights
Executive Summary

Adani Green Energy delivered exceptional FY26 results with 34% YoY growth in energy sales to 37.6 billion units and record 5.1 GW capacity addition, achieving 19.3 GW total operating capacity. Management is highly confident about future growth driven by aggressive battery storage expansion (targeting 10 GWh in FY27) and improving transmission infrastructure, though curtailment issues caused ~₹1,200-1,500 crore EBITDA loss in FY26.

Financial Performance

Revenue from power supply grew 22% YoY to ₹11,602 crores, while EBITDA increased 23% to ₹10,865 crores with industry-leading EBITDA margin of 91.2%. The company acknowledged significant impact from curtailment and merchant pricing challenges, losing approximately ₹500 crores EBITDA due to curtailment and ₹800-1,000 crores from lower merchant realizations versus long-term contract rates, totaling ₹1,200-1,500 crores in lost EBITDA for FY26. Current blended PPA rate stands at ₹3.10 per unit. Future contracts expected at ₹2.65 for solar and ₹3.03-3.80 for wind. Blended cost of debt at 8.9% with expectations of downward pressure. Total CapEx guidance for FY27 is ₹40-42,000 crores (potentially reaching ₹45,000 crores), with ₹15,000 crores allocated specifically to battery storage (10 GWh at ₹1.5 crores per MWh).

Revenue
₹11,602 crores from power supply
Revenue Growth
22% YoY
Net Profit
N/A
Profit Growth
N/A
EBITDA Margin
91.2%
Management Commentary

Management demonstrated strong confidence in execution capabilities and strategic vision, emphasizing readiness to execute 7-8 GW annually if needed but deliberately limiting to 4.5-5 GW in FY27 due to transmission constraints. Sagar Adani repeatedly highlighted battery storage as the critical hedge against curtailment and evacuation risks, positioning it as strategic priority with aggressive 10 GWh FY27 target. Management took disciplined approach to guidance, committing only to 12-month forward capacity additions rather than longer-term projections due to transmission uncertainty. Strong emphasis on maintaining 90%+ long-term contracted capacity going forward, acknowledging FY26 merchant exposure was deliberate anomaly to capture ISTS benefits before deadline. Management displayed sophisticated understanding of regulatory complexities and grid integration challenges, avoiding overly optimistic promises while expressing confidence in company's ability to manage through sector-level constraints via battery storage and improved planning.

Risks & Challenges Discussed

Curtailment and transmission constraints remain primary challenges, causing ₹1,200-1,500 crore EBITDA loss in FY26. Management acknowledged 9.5 GW of operating capacity (5.3 GW interim merchant awaiting PPA conversion + 4.2 GW pure merchant) currently without long-term contracts, though expects 5.3 GW to convert to PPA by December 2026. Transmission infrastructure development carries execution uncertainty with potential 3-4 month delays in evacuation capacity timelines. Company deliberately limiting capacity additions to 4.5-5 GW in FY27 despite 7-8 GW execution capability, reflecting transmission bottleneck concerns. Management candidly acknowledged that complete elimination of curtailment cannot be guaranteed given India's complex regulatory framework and multiple interconnected stakeholders. Khavda evacuation specifically constrained, though expecting 7 GW additional capacity by December 2026 and another 7 GW by March 2027 (total 14-15 GW over 12-15 months, subject to delays). Solar PLF in Khavda impacted 2.5-3% by curtailment, reducing from potential 30% to actual 27%. Wind segment faced some Q3 curtailment though less severe than solar.

Forward Guidance

Revenue Outlook: Expected improvement from eliminating ₹1,200-1,500 crore EBITDA loss experienced in FY26 as curtailment reduces and merchant capacity converts to long-term PPAs

Margin Outlook: Maintaining industry-leading 91%+ EBITDA margins; battery economics expected at ~₹25 lakhs EBITDA per MWh (similar or better than renewable generation)

Key Targets:

Key Takeaways from the Call
What Went Well
  • Record 5.1 GW capacity addition demonstrates unmatched execution capabilities, highest globally outside China
  • Battery storage becoming strategic competitive advantage with target to reach 50% of India's total installed battery capacity at 3 GWh
  • BBB+ rating equivalent to India sovereign demonstrates strong creditworthiness and improving access to capital
  • Management confirmed organizational and financial capability to execute 7-8 GW annually if transmission permits, showing significant upside potential
  • ₹1,200-1,500 crore one-time EBITDA loss from FY26 curtailment/merchant exposure unlikely to repeat, providing earnings recovery tailwind
  • 5.1 GW FY26 additions secured permanent ISTS benefit advantage before deadline, creating structural cost advantage for 25 years
  • Strong contracted pipeline with 28 GW signed PPAs provides multi-year revenue visibility
  • Khavda project scale (9.4 GW operational) demonstrates execution excellence at world's largest renewable installation
Areas of Concern
  • Deliberate capacity addition constraint to 4.5-5 GW despite 7-8 GW capability indicates ongoing transmission infrastructure concerns
  • 9.5 GW of operating capacity (49% of total) currently without long-term PPAs, creating near-term revenue uncertainty
  • Management acknowledged curtailment cannot be completely eliminated given India's complex regulatory environment
  • Evacuation timeline uncertainty with potential 3-4 month delays acknowledged by management
  • Aggressive 10 GWh battery storage target in single year represents execution risk and working capital intensity (₹15,000 crore CapEx)
  • No commitment to FY28 capacity additions due to transmission uncertainty, limiting visibility beyond 12 months
  • Merchant power pricing pressure evident in ₹800-1,000 crore realization loss versus long-term contract rates
  • Total CapEx potentially reaching ₹45,000 crores in FY27 raises capital allocation and funding questions despite strong balance sheet
Analyst Q&A Highlights
Q: What are the milestones and dependencies for scaling battery storage from 1.4 GWh to 10 GWh target?
A: "Already at 3 GWh commissioned with quarterly run-rate demonstrated; only constraints are capital flexibility and supply chain management; batteries actually help hedge grid unavailability by absorbing daytime generation and discharging at evening peak"
Q: How should we think about battery economics versus solar in terms of margins, capital intensity, and payback?
A: "Battery economics similar or slightly better than renewables; capital intensity at ₹1.5 crore per MWh with ₹25 lakh EBITDA per MWh expected; evening peak pricing and ability to use otherwise-curtailed zero-cost power improves margins further during curtailment periods"
Q: What was the EBITDA impact from curtailment and merchant pricing in FY26, and outlook for FY27?
A: "Lost ₹500 crores from curtailment and ₹800-1,000 crores from merchant pricing gap versus long-term rates, totaling ₹1,200-1,500 crores; this loss not expected to repeat going forward as 100% of FY27 additions are contracted and transmission improves"
Q: Can you quantify evacuation capacity improvements and timeline at Khavda?
A: "Currently 9 GW operational; expecting 7 GW additional by December 2026 and another 7 GW by March 2027 for total 14-15 GW over next 12-15 months, though cautioned 3-4 month delays possible given transmission complexity"
Q: What is strategy beyond current contracted 28 GW - focus on C&I/data centers or utility-scale tenders?
A: "AGEL maintains 90%+ long-term contract target; sister company AESL handles C&I customer relationships and will source power from AGEL at arm's length market rates (₹2.60-2.70 solar, ₹3.70-3.90 wind); multiple demand sources emerging including data centers"
Call Summary

Analysts focused heavily on three areas: (1) battery storage execution roadmap and economics, (2) curtailment impact quantification and resolution timeline, and (3) transmission infrastructure development at Khavda. Management responded with unusual candor about challenges while demonstrating confidence through specific numbers and timelines. Sagar Adani repeatedly positioned battery storage as the strategic solution to curtailment risks, revealing aggressive expansion plans that would give AGEL 50% market share in India. Analysts probed the 9.5 GW merchant/interim merchant exposure, with management providing clear conversion timeline (December 2026 for 5.3 GW) and emphasizing FY26 merchant additions were deliberate strategy to capture ISTS benefits. Questions about execution capability versus planned additions revealed management is deliberately constraining growth due to grid concerns despite having 7-8 GW annual capacity. Several analysts sought clarity on C&I strategy, with management articulating clear separation between AGEL (generation) and AESL (customer-facing solutions). Overall tone was balanced - management acknowledged real challenges around transmission and curtailment but demonstrated strong command of mitigation strategies and execution capabilities, with specific CapEx allocations and capacity targets providing confidence in near-term delivery.

IMPORTANT:
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