• Record quarterly electricity volume of 39.4 BUs in Q4 FY26, up 24.3% YoY; full year volume of 141 BUs, up 17% YoY
• RTM segment continued strong growth with 55 BUs traded in FY26, up 41% YoY, now representing 39% share of total electricity volumes
• Green market volumes grew 23% YoY to 10.8 BUs in FY26, settlements increased 49% YoY as prices dropped 14% to ₹3.86/unit
• IGX completed 5 years of operations, now represents 3% of India's gas consumption and 20% of spot market; traded 76.8 MMBTU in FY26
• Board approved in-principle exploration of coal exchange opportunity; e-auction coal market estimated at 80 million tonnes annually
• India achieved 50% renewable energy capacity milestone (275 GW) five years ahead of 2030 target
• CERC draft regulations for market coupling propose Grid India as MCO; final notification timeline uncertain
• ICX issued 1.79 million iRECs in FY26, up 200% YoY; coal exchange regulations expected later in calendar 2026

IEX delivered strong FY26 performance with 17% volume growth to 141 BUs and 14.9% PAT growth to ₹492.9 crore, driven by 41% RTM growth and expanding renewable energy markets. However, near-term challenges include geopolitical uncertainties affecting gas volumes, subdued power demand, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty around market coupling, though management remains confident in retaining market share through customer loyalty and platform advantages.

Q4 FY26 consolidated revenue grew 12.5% YoY to ₹196.4 crore from ₹174.6 crore, while PAT increased 10.8% to ₹129.8 crore from ₹117.1 crore. For full year FY26, PAT grew 14.9% from ₹429.2 crore to ₹492.9 crore. The board declared a final dividend of ₹2 per share (200% of face value). Other income in Q4 was impacted by mark-to-market losses due to market correction from Middle East conflict and rupee depreciation, down 29% sequentially from Q3 levels which had one-time treasury gains. IGX reported Q4 PAT of ₹9.4 crore (up 5.4% YoY) and full year PAT of ₹41.9 crore (up 35% YoY). ICX revenue was ₹2.2 crore in Q4 and ₹7.7 crore for FY26. More than 70% of trading volume now flows through API-based systems. Over 5,000 industrial consumers are registered on the platform.

Management demonstrated measured confidence despite regulatory uncertainties, emphasizing their 18-year track record of customer relationship building as their key competitive moat. CMD S.N. Goyal stressed that even in worst-case market coupling scenarios, customer loyalty, value-added services (data analytics, API systems, settlement services), and operational excellence should help retain significant market share. He cited the RTM market where despite uniform liquidity across exchanges, margins remain healthy at 3.6-3.7 paisa versus 4 paisa benchmark. The team highlighted diversification initiatives - coal exchange, gas exchange, carbon markets, battery storage arbitrage - as strategic growth drivers. On coal exchange, management noted significant opportunity with 80 million tonnes in e-auction plus 150 million tonnes imports, though emphasized waiting for final regulations. They maintained guidance of 15-20% volume growth for FY27 based on CEA's projection of 2,500 BUs demand by 2032 and peak demand reaching 270 GW. Management appeared pragmatic about market coupling, noting the situation remains "fluid" and expressing doubts about RTM coupling feasibility due to tight timelines (48 sessions daily, 15-minute blocks moving to 5-minute blocks).

The primary risk remains regulatory uncertainty around market coupling, with CERC's April 2026 draft proposing Grid India as MCO for price discovery while exchanges handle settlement. Management noted stakeholder comments are due May 16, but timeline for final regulations is uncertain (citing 2-year gap between 2019 draft and 2021 final for previous PMR). Geopolitical tensions in Middle East have severely impacted gas volumes at IGX, with management expecting Q1 FY27 volumes to show no YoY growth. Power demand remained subdued in FY26 at 1,709 BUs (flat YoY) due to weather conditions, though Q4 showed 2.2% growth. Sell-side liquidity concerns exist for FY27 despite government invoking Section 7 for imported coal plants through June 2026. IGX faces timeline pressure to reduce promoter stake to PFRDA norms by December 31, 2026. VPPAs have not gained significant traction yet despite regulatory clarity. Market coupling could potentially erode market share to smaller exchanges (HPX, PXIL) and create margin pressure, though management dismissed significant margin impact citing RTM precedent. Coal exchange faces operational complexities around quality standardization, logistics, and transportation that need resolution. RTM market coupling appears operationally challenging with 48 daily sessions and tight timelines, risking price discovery issues if data aggregation fails.

Revenue Outlook: Management expects to maintain 15-20% volume growth in FY27 based on historical trends and CEA demand projections

Margin Outlook: No significant margin impact expected from market coupling; RTM precedent shows margins remain healthy at 3.6-3.7 paisa vs 4 paisa despite uniform liquidity

Key Targets:

• Peak demand projected to reach 270 GW in FY27 with El Nino effect strengthening post-June 2026
• CEA projects electricity demand approaching 2,500 BUs by 2032
• IGX expected to show recovery from Q2 FY27 onwards after subdued Q1
• VPPA adoption expected to increase with data center and multinational interest
• Coal exchange opportunity estimated at 80 million tonnes e-auction plus import replacement potential

The Q&A session revealed analyst focus on three key areas: (1) regulatory uncertainty around market coupling and its commercial/operational implications, (2) diversification opportunities particularly coal exchange and gas market recovery, and (3) operational resilience and customer retention strategies. Multiple analysts probed management on worst-case scenarios for market coupling, to which management consistently responded with confidence in their customer loyalty moat and cited RTM precedent for margin stability. Significant attention was paid to coal exchange opportunity sizing and implementation challenges, with management providing detailed context on market structure (80M tonnes e-auction, 150M imports) but emphasizing need for final regulations. Concerns about IGX's geopolitical headwinds and timeline pressures for stake reduction were acknowledged pragmatically. Analysts also explored technical aspects like RTM coupling feasibility (48 daily sessions, tight timelines) where management expressed doubts about operational viability. Questions on VPPA traction, buyback potential, and battery storage arbitrage indicated investor interest in diversification narratives beyond core power exchange business. Overall, management tone was measured but confident, acknowledging near-term uncertainties while emphasizing structural growth drivers (renewable capacity, market deepening, new products) and competitive advantages (customer relationships, platform features, operational track record). The 15-20% volume growth guidance for FY27 despite headwinds suggested management confidence in underlying market development trajectory.