• Successfully commissioned Mumbai HVDC project (INR 7,000 crore investment) in March 2025, adding INR 1,300 crores annual tariff revenue on full-year basis
• Achieved record smart meter installations of 83 lakh meters in FY26, surpassing target of 70 lakh meters - highest globally for any operator
• Increased RAB at AEML from INR 5,400 crores to INR 10,500+ crores; transmission RAB increased from INR 10,000 crores to INR 17,000 crores with HVDC addition
• Improved transmission market share to ~29% in FY26 from 25% previously, with INR 150,000 crores of identified bidding opportunities
• C&I business contracted 5 GW renewable capacity with 1,400 MW already tied to customers, targeting data centers and commercial consumers
• Credit rating improved to AAA/AAA+ across most assets despite significantly scaling up CapEx to INR 15,000 crores, with interest costs declining
• Successfully refinanced $500 million bond with US insurance investors despite challenging geopolitical environment
• AEML achieved 99.7% availability and reduced distribution losses to 4.2% from initial 8.5%, maintaining number one ranking for four consecutive years

Adani Energy Solutions delivered strong FY26 results with commissioning of the Mumbai HVDC project and record smart meter installations of 83 lakh units. Management is highly confident about future growth, projecting consolidated EBITDA to reach ~INR 11,500 crores in FY27 and triple current levels within 3-4 years, driven by locked-in transmission projects, smart meter expansion, and the emerging C&I business with 5 GW renewable capacity contracted.

FY26 consolidated EBITDA reached INR 8,726 crores (up from INR 7,000 crores in FY25), with operational EBITDA breakdown showing transmission at INR 10,260 crores capitalization, distribution at INR 1,511 crores, and smart metering at INR 3,556 crores. Total CapEx deployed was INR 15,300 crores split between transmission (INR 10,260 crores), distribution (INR 1,511 crores), and smart metering (INR 3,556 crores). Operating cash flow was approximately INR 11,000 crores against total CapEx of INR 14,431 crores. The Mumbai HVDC project commissioned in March 2025 will contribute INR 1,600 crores incremental EBITDA on full-year run-rate basis in FY27. Smart meter business generated INR 593 crores operational EBITDA for the full year. Current CWIP stands at INR 2,500 crores for conventional assets plus INR 6,200 crores in service concession arrangement (SCA) assets. Net leverage maintained at 4.5-4.7x debt-to-EBITDA despite significant CapEx scaling.

Management exhibited high confidence about growth trajectory, with CEO Kandarp Patel emphasizing disciplined capital allocation and improved financial metrics despite aggressive expansion. Key strategic priorities include maintaining 25-30% transmission market share, scaling smart meter installations to 1 crore+ units in FY27, and developing the C&I business as a major growth driver. CFO Kunal Mehta projected FY27 EBITDA at INR 11,500 crores and indicated locked-in transmission projects would drive 2-3x EBITDA growth within 3-4 years. Management stressed maintaining financial discipline with leverage at 4.5-4.7x while pursuing INR 77,000 crores locked-in CapEx over four years. Strong emphasis on credit rating improvements, declining interest costs, and successful international refinancing as evidence of operational and financial strength. The tone was decidedly optimistic about capturing opportunities across all segments while maintaining strict capital management discipline.

Management acknowledged ongoing policy debates about transmission investments versus battery storage co-location, which could potentially reduce interstate transmission requirements, though they expect state-level transmission opportunities to offset this. ROW (right-of-way) challenges persist, requiring forest clearances, wildlife sanctuary permissions, and land compensation negotiations with farmers, though government support through police protection and systematic resolution has improved. Equipment supply constraints have largely eased with increased domestic manufacturing by Siemens and Hitachi, though China-sourced equipment is prohibited per TBCB conditions. The smart meter business faces uncertainty around next major contract awards, with Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh representing 9-10 crore meter opportunities awaiting central government approval under RDSS. C&I business margins remain uncertain in merchant market operations until long-term contracts are secured (currently earning 50+ paisa/unit on contracted 1.5 GW). Two major HVDC projects (Khavda-Bhuj and Khavda-Aurangabad) face land acquisition delays, with Aurangabad land expected in a month, though construction has commenced on other elements. Distribution license opportunities for data centers could potentially bypass AESL's C&I offering.

Revenue Outlook: FY27 consolidated EBITDA projected at INR 11,500 crores; EBITDA expected to triple current levels within 3-4 years once all locked-in transmission projects commission

Margin Outlook: C&I business earning 50+ paisa/unit margins on contracted capacity; management declined to provide specific EBITDA margin guidance

Key Targets:

• FY27 CapEx: INR 21,000-22,000 crores (Transmission: INR 15,500cr, Distribution: INR 2,350cr, Smart Meter: INR 3,900cr)
• FY28 CapEx: ~INR 23,000 crores (Transmission: INR 20,000cr, Distribution: INR 2,000cr, Smart Meter: INR 1,500cr plus new orders)
• FY27 capitalization: INR 21,000-22,000 crores
• FY28 capitalization: ~INR 13,000 crores
• FY27 smart meter installations: 1 crore+ meters (100 lakh)
• Transmission market share target: 25-30% consistently
• Annual transmission bidding capture: INR 40,000-50,000 crores
• Maintain net leverage at 4.5-4.7x
• Locked-in CapEx over 4 years: INR 77,000 crores

Analysts focused heavily on understanding the aggressive growth trajectory, with particular emphasis on CapEx plans, capitalization timelines, and EBITDA expansion path. Multiple questions probed the Mumbai HVDC commissioning details and revenue contribution, reflecting investor interest in this milestone project. Significant attention was paid to reconciling high CapEx spending (INR 21,000-23,000 crores annually) with leverage management, with management reassuring that 70:30 debt-equity financing and improving credit ratings enable sustainable growth. Smart meter execution capability and next contract opportunities were key discussion points, particularly the 9-10 crore meter pipeline awaiting government approvals. The emerging C&I business generated curiosity around margins, contracted capacity, and positioning for data center demand. Analysts sought clarity on transmission opportunity sustainability given battery storage policy debates, with management emphasizing shift toward state-level opportunities. The tone of questioning was generally positive, seeking to understand scale and timing of growth rather than challenging fundamentals. Management responded confidently throughout, providing specific numbers and projecting 2-3x EBITDA growth within 3-4 years based on locked-in projects, though declining to provide explicit margin guidance. Overall, the call reinforced a strong growth narrative supported by concrete project pipelines and improving financial metrics.