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Clean Max Env. Energ
Q3FY26 Power March 18, 2026
Management Sentiment
8.0/10
Tailwinds
9.0/10
Headwinds
4.0/10
Business Performance Highlights
Executive Summary

CleanMax delivered exceptional growth with 33% EBITDA growth in 9M FY26, operational capacity reaching 3 GW (76% YoY growth), and contracted capacity expanding 3x to 5.7 GW over two years. The company demonstrated strong execution with 1.3 GW commissioned in 11 months, improved margins (83% in RE Power Sales), reduced cost of debt to 8.7%, and guided for 1.5+ GW additions in FY27. Data center/AI segment now represents 42% of contracted capacity with 10x growth in under 2 years.

Financial Performance

Revenue grew 29% YoY to INR 1,355.4 crore for 9M FY26. EBITDA increased 33% to INR 944.8 crore with 40% growth in Q3 FY26 versus Q3 FY25. Reported PAT surged from INR 2 crore (9M FY25) to INR 40 crore (9M FY26). RE Power Sales segment (93-95% of EBITDA) showed revenue growth of 26% with EBITDA margins improving from 81% to 83%, while gross margins remained stable at 92-93%. RE Services segment delivered 40% revenue growth with EBITDA margins expanding from 15% to 22%. Run rate EBITDA as of March 2026 reached INR 1,390 crore, adding INR 650 crore (57% growth) in 11 months. Weighted average interest rates declined from 9.2% at start of fiscal to 8.7% by December 2025. Net debt stood at INR 8,408 crore as of December 2025 with debt-to-adjusted EBITDA at 4.8x and DSCR for stabilized assets at 1.4x. Operating leverage drove SG&A efficiency with EBITDA margins expanding from 75% (FY23) to 83% (Dec 2025).

Revenue
INR 1,355.4 crore for 9M FY26
Revenue Growth
29% YoY for 9M FY26
Net Profit
INR 40 crore for 9M FY26 vs INR 2 crore for 9M FY25
Profit Growth
1,900% YoY (from INR 2 crore to INR 40 crore)
EBITDA Margin
RE Power Sales: 83% (up from 81%); RE Services: 22% (up from 15%)
Management Commentary

Management exhibited high confidence emphasizing their position as India's C&I segment leader with strong execution capabilities demonstrated through consistent capacity additions. They highlighted diversification across states (reducing Karnataka and Gujarat concentration from 68% to 54%), technology mix (70% solar, 30% wind), and customer segments. Leadership emphasized unit economics superiority compared to utility-scale peers due to direct-to-customer model enabling higher tariffs (INR 3.6-3.8 per unit versus industry average) while maintaining capital efficiency. They stressed operating leverage benefits with SG&A improving as scale increases, projecting EBITDA margins could reach 85-86% in 2-3 years from current 83%. Management provided detailed transparency on environmental attribute purchase agreements (EAPA) mechanics for data center clients and demonstrated proactive risk analysis regarding regulatory changes, estimating maximum 1.5% EBITDA impact even if all proposed regulatory changes occur. The tone was measured but optimistic, with clear guidance and willingness to provide detailed disclosure.

Risks & Challenges Discussed

Key challenges include transmission and evacuation constraints, with the 525 MW CTU-connected plant in Rajasthan experiencing grid connectivity delays until estimated October-December 2026 due to transmission bottlenecks. Another 450 MW wind + 110 MW solar CTU project in Karnataka faces similar delays with December 2026 connectivity estimate. Regulatory risks include potential elimination of cross-subsidy charges, changes to banking rules limiting daytime solar use at night, and differential pricing for peak versus off-peak power - though management estimates combined impact at only 1.5% of EBITDA. Competition remains intense in the C&I segment with utility-scale players potentially moving into this space given attractive economics. Land acquisition presents ongoing challenges with 80% secured for FY27 capacity but requiring continuous deals given average 4-acre farm holdings supporting only 1.5 MW. The business requires significant capital with INR 17,390 crore net debt for under-construction assets as of December 2025. Market risks include potential tariff compression post-June 2026 as ALMM (Approved List of Models and Manufacturers) requirements increase module costs by 7-10%, though management indicates continued customer traction at higher pricing.

Forward Guidance

Revenue Outlook: Not explicitly provided, but 1.5+ GW capacity additions in FY27 implies significant revenue growth continuation

Margin Outlook: EBITDA margins expected to improve to 85-86% in 2-3 years from current 83% due to operating leverage

Key Targets:

Key Takeaways from the Call
What Went Well
  • Exceptional capacity growth: 1.3 GW commissioned in 11 months versus 500 MW in prior 12-month period, demonstrating 160% acceleration in execution capability
  • Strong margin expansion with operating leverage: EBITDA margins improved from 81% to 83% in RE Power Sales and 15% to 22% in RE Services with further upside to 85-86% projected
  • Data center/AI mega-trend capture: 42% of capacity (2.4 GW) serving data centers with 10x growth in under 2 years and new client additions (Yotta, CtrlS, Princeton Digital)
  • Superior unit economics versus peers: CapEx-to-EBITDA ratio of 5.8x versus industry 7+x, driven by higher tariffs (INR 3.8 vs industry average) through direct-to-customer model
  • High-quality contracted backlog: 2.7 GW under execution at INR 3.84/unit average tariff with 23-year average PPA tenure providing 5+ years of revenue visibility
  • Improving capital structure: Cost of debt reduced from 9.5% to 8.7%, DSCR at healthy 1.4x, and strategic partnerships (Osaka Gas INR 176 crore investment) improving equity efficiency
  • Consistent execution excellence: Projects delivered at 96.5% of approved CapEx with >99% grid uptime and strong PLF performance, especially in wind (better season)
  • Diversified growth with reduced concentration: State concentration (Karnataka+Gujarat) reduced from 68% to 54%, with growth across Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh
Areas of Concern
  • Significant transmission delays: 525 MW Rajasthan CTU plant delayed until Q4 CY2026 (Oct-Dec) and 450 MW Karnataka wind project delayed to December 2026 due to grid bottlenecks
  • Regulatory uncertainty: Multiple proposed changes including cross-subsidy elimination, banking rule modifications, and time-of-day pricing could create headwinds (though management estimates only 1.5% EBITDA impact)
  • Rising module costs post-ALMM: Tariffs increased 7-10% post-January 2025 due to ALMM requirements, potentially impacting competitiveness despite continued customer traction
  • High debt levels: Net debt of INR 8,408 crore operational + INR 17,390 crore under construction as of December 2025, creating significant refinancing and execution risk
  • Land acquisition challenges: Only 80% of land secured for FY27 capacity with fragmented 4-acre average holdings requiring numerous deals and ongoing execution risk
  • No FY28 guidance provided: Management declined to provide capacity addition guidance beyond FY27, citing multiple moving parts and execution uncertainties
  • IPO proceeds not reflected in December balance sheet: Net debt numbers exclude IPO proceeds, indicating potential higher leverage than reported until refinancing completed
  • Competitive intensity: Attractive unit economics may draw utility-scale players into C&I segment, though management noted retail vs wholesale model differentiation
Analyst Q&A Highlights
Q: How does pricing work post-ALMM implementation and what is the impact on tariffs and demand?
A: "Tariffs increased 7-10% post-January 2025 due to ALMM requirements. Management offered ALMM-free pricing for brownfield expansions with June 2025 COD until November/December. Post-January, revised higher pricing was offered but customer traction remained strong as savings remain compelling. Wind-solar hybrid offerings continue to find good traction in major states."
Q: Can you explain how Environmental Attribute Purchase Agreements (EAPA) work for data centers not physically consuming power in India?
A: "Two-thirds of data/AI business (1.6 GW of 2.4 GW total) uses EAPA structure. CleanMax generates power and sells on IEX as green power. If market price is INR 2 and contracted tariff is INR 3.4, the big tech client pays the INR 1.4 difference. If market price exceeds INR 3.4, CleanMax pays the difference back. This creates a 25-year fixed tariff contract with high-quality counterparty similar to standard PPAs."
Q: What is the debt breakdown between operational and under-construction assets, and how to think about run-rate net debt?
A: "As of December 31, 2025: INR 4,068 crore for assets operational >1 year, INR 1,781 crore for assets commissioned during FY26, INR 1,739 crore for under-construction assets, and INR 1,490 crore corporate loans. Management maintains ~5.5x run-rate net debt to EBITDA. Note: This excludes IPO proceeds which will reduce net debt."
Q: What drives confidence in 1.5 GW FY27 guidance given transmission challenges?
A: "High confidence due to: (1) Diversification across 9-10 projects in 8-9 states, (2) Only 500 MW is CTU-connected where transmission issues are acute, remaining 1 GW is feeder-connected or on-site solar without such challenges, (3) 70-80% of required land already acquired with rest on track, (4) Demonstrated organizational capability with 1.3 GW added this year, (5) Significant brownfield capacity leveraging existing infrastructure."
Q: What is maximum EBITDA impact from proposed regulatory changes (cross-subsidy elimination, banking rule changes, time-of-day pricing)?
A: "Management conducted comprehensive analysis on all proposed regulatory changes and estimated maximum combined EBITDA impact of only 1.5% on the 3 GW contracted capacity even if all changes occur. Detailed analysis provided in shareholder letter with rationale for limited impact despite multiple proposed changes."
Call Summary

The Q&A session revealed analyst focus on three main areas: (1) Growth sustainability and execution capability given transmission challenges, (2) Business model mechanics particularly around EAPA contracts for data centers, and (3) Financial metrics and capital structure given high growth. Analysts were particularly interested in understanding how CleanMax achieves superior unit economics versus utility-scale peers, with management crediting the direct-to-customer retail model enabling 30% tariff premiums. Multiple questions probed transmission and evacuation risks, with management providing specific project-level updates and emphasizing diversification as risk mitigation. The regulatory risk discussion was thorough, with management proactively quantifying maximum impact scenarios. Analysts appreciated the detailed disclosure in the shareholder letter and presentation, particularly the run-rate EBITDA and debt breakdowns. Questions on land acquisition, customer credit quality, and competitive dynamics revealed no major concerns. Management tone was confident but measured, declining to provide FY28 guidance while emphasizing equity sufficiency for 3+ years of high growth. The data center/AI opportunity generated significant interest with management explaining both direct supply (1/3 of volume) and EAPA structures (2/3 of volume) in detail. Overall, management successfully addressed concerns around execution risks while highlighting multiple growth drivers and improving unit economics through scale.

IMPORTANT:
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